Peak Oil is a worrying topic but one that is complicated and based on many factors. Even if Hubbert’s predicted peak of oil isn’t close to happening and there are lots of barrels left in the earth, a plateau of oil production, which a lot of oil companies are saying looks likely around 2012, is likely to have a similarly heavy impact on economic growth and prosperity.
The oil taken so far has been mostly the easiest to extract. Whilst large swathes of oil lie locked away in places like the Venezuela Orinoco Belt and the Canadian Oil Sands, they are harder (and more expensive) to get. Added to the slowing of many major crude sources, these facts have led a lot of oil experts to predict the production of oil will slow and plateau, probably never reaching 100mbpd. With China and India increasing demand, we’ll be needing more than that in ten years time. What happens if the supply can’t keep up?
6 thoughts on “An oil production plateau could be with us by 2012”
World Peak Oil Production may have already happened, at least according to these figures from
All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.54 mbpd ( 0.11 mbpd), the year to date average production in 2007 (6 months) is 84.28 mbpd (0.02 mbpd), down 0.07 mbpd from 2006 for the same period.
Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd ( 0.01 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 81.20 mbpd ( 0.04 mbpd), down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd ( 0.15 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 73.23 mbpd ( 0.14 mbpd), down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
NGPL: the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.03 mbpd ( 0.21 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 7.97 mbpd (0.18 mbpd), up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.
What will happen when oil production sags permanently below demand for the first time? Take a look at World Without Oil, a collaborative and collective chronicle of the first global oil crisis. It’s a serious alternate reality game that played out from April 30 to June 1, 2007, in thousands of blog posts, YouTube videos, voicemails and other transmedia. You can explore the archive online at http://www.worldwithoutoil.org...
I was responsible for Miawithoutoil, the third highest ranked diary in the World Without Oil project. Playing that game is a large part of the reason for my peak oil posts here on futurismic.
2012 is also Terrence McKenna’s timewave zero apocalypse, lol.
Hey Matthew, 2012 is also the end of the Mayan calender!
My gut feeling is that it’s already upon us. Oil hit just a hair under 100$ a barrel without much causation. We still have the cold months ahead.
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