Comments on: The rise of the subnotebook computer … and the fall of the computing economy http://futurismic.com/2008/03/03/the-rise-of-the-subnotebook-computer-and-the-fall-of-the-computing-economy/ Presenting the fact and fiction of tomorrow since 2001 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:03:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Michael http://futurismic.com/2008/03/03/the-rise-of-the-subnotebook-computer-and-the-fall-of-the-computing-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-13309 Michael Tue, 04 Mar 2008 19:35:08 +0000 http://futurismic.com/2008/03/03/the-rise-of-the-subnotebook-computer-and-the-fall-of-the-computing-economy/#comment-13309 Bah, I didn't believe that when Charlie posted it. When laptops are a commodity, then the industry will move on to something else -- as they should. Rent-seeking behavior will *cause* recession in the long run, because the big guys become parasitic and quash innovation. How many billions has Microsoft siphoned out of the world economy? I don't buy it. There will simply be some other reason to continue to pursue the arms race -- but not at the expense of everybody wanting a front end. My guess: voice recognition, then natural language processing. Both of those are going to take a crapload of processing power, and probably specialized hardware to run. This is just a sign that the WIMP interface is old and mature now. It shouldn't be the place where smart money is investing, but that doesn't mean there are no places for smart money to invest. Bah, I didn’t believe that when Charlie posted it. When laptops are a commodity, then the industry will move on to something else — as they should. Rent-seeking behavior will *cause* recession in the long run, because the big guys become parasitic and quash innovation. How many billions has Microsoft siphoned out of the world economy?

I don’t buy it.

There will simply be some other reason to continue to pursue the arms race — but not at the expense of everybody wanting a front end.

My guess: voice recognition, then natural language processing. Both of those are going to take a crapload of processing power, and probably specialized hardware to run.

This is just a sign that the WIMP interface is old and mature now. It shouldn’t be the place where smart money is investing, but that doesn’t mean there are no places for smart money to invest.

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