Comments on: Is Peak Oil a lie? http://futurismic.com/2008/09/19/is-peak-oil-a-lie/ Presenting the fact and fiction of tomorrow since 2001 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:03:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: mike3 http://futurismic.com/2008/09/19/is-peak-oil-a-lie/comment-page-1/#comment-92444 mike3 Mon, 29 Mar 2010 23:52:43 +0000 http://futurismic.com/?p=3975#comment-92444 More expensive oil, that is, "costly oil", IS what peak oil is about, not the date at which oil "runs out" (which is likely "never", since oil will eventually get so expensive or scarce that nobody would bother mining the last drop.). The economy isn't dependent on just "oil" but CHEAP oil. Thus it is the end of CHEAP oil, not the end of oil, that is the key point. If we suddenly magically got 100 trillion bbls of oil dropped into our lap from On High but it cost $10,000/bbl to use, we might as well not have it at all. From this view, even "peak oil" is not really the most important event, but "gap oil", where demand outstrips supply enough to cause big trouble. When we run out of CHEAP oil, it's like having the pillars kicked out from under our economy. What happens when oil costs $400/bbl? We saw what $147/bbl did. Wanna try $400? If he admits oil ain't gonna be cheap anymore, he has conceded the main point of peak oil theory, even while simultaneously "denying" it. The point behind peak oil is NOT, I repeat, NOT about "when oil runs dry" (which as I said will likely never happen for the reason given) but "when oil ain't CHEAP anymore" (which WILL happen and IS happening). People like to think "peak oil" equals "zero oil". Actually, it's just the opposite: maximum oil, or more precisely, maximum oil availability. More expensive oil, that is, “costly oil”, IS what peak oil is about, not the date at which oil “runs out” (which is likely “never”, since oil will eventually get so expensive or scarce that nobody would bother mining the last drop.). The economy isn’t dependent on just “oil” but CHEAP oil. Thus it is the end of CHEAP oil, not the end of oil, that is the key point. If we suddenly magically got 100 trillion bbls of oil dropped into our lap from On High but it cost $10,000/bbl to use, we might as well not have it at all. From this view, even “peak oil” is not really the most important event, but “gap oil”, where demand outstrips supply enough to cause big trouble.

When we run out of CHEAP oil, it’s like having the pillars kicked out from under our economy. What happens when oil costs $400/bbl? We saw what $147/bbl did. Wanna try $400?

If he admits oil ain’t gonna be cheap anymore, he has conceded the main point of peak oil theory, even while simultaneously “denying” it.

The point behind peak oil is NOT, I repeat, NOT about “when oil runs dry” (which as I said will likely never happen for the reason given) but “when oil ain’t CHEAP anymore” (which WILL happen and IS happening). People like to think “peak oil” equals “zero oil”. Actually, it’s just the opposite: maximum oil, or more precisely, maximum oil availability.

]]> By: ShaunCG http://futurismic.com/2008/09/19/is-peak-oil-a-lie/comment-page-1/#comment-16326 ShaunCG Fri, 19 Sep 2008 14:15:55 +0000 http://futurismic.com/?p=3975#comment-16326 SchNEWS had a piece on this a few weeks back: http://www.schnews.org.uk/archive/news6441.htm The argument is made that there is actually a glut of oil supply at the moment, and what is lacking is refining capacity, which hasn't increased to match increased supply. I meant to tie this argument in with the post I made about Saudi Arabia walking out of OPEC the other week, but I couldn't remember where I'd read it and Google was no help! As SchNEWS put it, "The real problem isn’t that we’re going to run out of fossil fuels. The problem is what happens when we don’t... " SchNEWS had a piece on this a few weeks back:
http://www.schnews.org.uk/archive/news6441.htm

The argument is made that there is actually a glut of oil supply at the moment, and what is lacking is refining capacity, which hasn’t increased to match increased supply. I meant to tie this argument in with the post I made about Saudi Arabia walking out of OPEC the other week, but I couldn’t remember where I’d read it and Google was no help!

As SchNEWS put it, “The real problem isn’t that we’re going to run out of fossil fuels. The problem is what happens when we don’t… “

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