Comments on: Black swans and the Fourth Quadrant http://futurismic.com/2008/09/26/black-swans-and-the-fourth-quadrant/ Presenting the fact and fiction of tomorrow since 2001 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:03:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Tom James http://futurismic.com/2008/09/26/black-swans-and-the-fourth-quadrant/comment-page-1/#comment-16401 Tom James Mon, 29 Sep 2008 14:30:48 +0000 http://futurismic.com/?p=4113#comment-16401 Yeah, the holes are really starting to open up in Kurzweil's thesis: 1: Exponential trends generally turn into sigmoid curves 2: Software development doesn't necessarily increase in utility in an exponential fashion However, it is possible to argue that Taleb's conception of a Black Swan Event could include the emergence of non-human intelligences. Only TIME will tell. Yeah, the holes are really starting to open up in Kurzweil’s thesis:

1: Exponential trends generally turn into sigmoid curves

2: Software development doesn’t necessarily increase in utility in an exponential fashion

However, it is possible to argue that Taleb’s conception of a Black Swan Event could include the emergence of non-human intelligences.

Only TIME will tell.

]]> By: dagon http://futurismic.com/2008/09/26/black-swans-and-the-fourth-quadrant/comment-page-1/#comment-16393 dagon Sun, 28 Sep 2008 12:15:59 +0000 http://futurismic.com/?p=4113#comment-16393 Quote: "• Technology, where it has been proposed that an uncannily smooth historical determinism is in charge, propelling us to the Singularity." Quote: “• Technology, where it has been proposed that an uncannily smooth historical determinism is in charge, propelling us to the Singularity.”

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