In the year 2025… will US military dominance survive?

Tom James @ 22-11-2008

The US National Intelligence Council has published their quadrennial Global Trends Review, from The Guardian:

While emerging economies like China, India and Brazil are likely to grow in influence at America’s expense, the same cannot be said of the European Union. The NIC appears relatively certain the EU will be “losing clout” by 2025. Internal bickering and a “democracy gap” separating Brussels from European voters will leave the EU “a hobbled giant”, unable to translate its economic clout into global influence.

There’s some other interesting stuff in there. The Guardian points out that the tone is different from the last time the NIC report was published in 2004:

It was called Mapping the Global Future, and looked forward as far as 2020 when it projected “continued US dominance, positing that most major powers have forsaken the idea of balancing the US”.

That confidence is entirely lacking from this far more sober assessment. Also gone is the belief that oil and gas supplies “in the ground” were “sufficient to meet global demand”.

It’s interesting how quickly perspectives can change – and reaffirms how difficult it is to create near future science fiction.

[from The Guardian][image from Army.mil on flickr]

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2 Responses to “In the year 2025… will US military dominance survive?”

  1. Paolo says:

    Non that difficult… the current meltdown has been a long time in preparation, and not very difficult to predict. The last 8 years have made very clear that US dominance was on the decline. A collapse in the style of the late Soviet Union is not that unlikely, marking the end of US global dominance much closer than 2020-2025.

  2. khannea says:

    Please yes, let this collapse. Whatever it takes to reduce the US expenditure to something under 100 billion a year. Please let this out of control bunch move back within their sane boundaries.

    Even a gentle giant like the US, long dedicated to freedom, democracy and equality has proven susceptible to the cancerous decay of sociopathic minorities, fringe lunatics, religious psychotics, neodarwinist market-fundamentalism and outright fascism at the highest government levels.

    Until abundant evidence to the contrary comes along, I will no longer trust the US. As far as I can judge the good people of the US intentionally went along with what amounts to betrayal. I call the voters of ameria (the majority) traitors of their most cherished ideals. They betrayed Europe and there was barely a whimper of protest when the “most miserable failure” in half a century led us decades backwards. Not once but twice they voted for this wretch. Sellouts and in my most charitable moment, utter fools.

    The people of the US will have to prove long, hard and sincerely they intend something better. If they don’t, for all I care the US is morally equivalent with Russia or China.