Screw optimism – this is a global guerilla century

guerillas on the marchJohn Robb isn’t going to give you the news you want to hear. Nope, sorry – the Depression scenario has already emerged fully, and the results are not going to be pretty as we transition into a new politico-economical era in its wake:

A global depression, in and of itself, isn’t the end of the world. However, it can set in motion unexpected events (black swans) — as in how the last depression catalyzed WW2. The revisionist effort to this economic collapse isn’t likely to be a surge in ideology or nationalism. Instead, we can expect an organic realignment as small groups of people form new primary loyalties (either to violent manufactured tribes or resilient communities), slot themselves into open source movements, and challenge a wheezing group of incumbent nation-states. This is a global guerrilla century.

So, not exactly a rosy outlook… and a poke in the eye for the Positive Manifesto school of sf, perhaps. That said, there’s plenty of starting points in Robb’s material for the more dystopian-leaning writer to tackle! [image by Keith Bacongco]

But what do you think – is Robb looking at a worst-case scenario and seeing Mad Max re-runs, or is he being generous with the possibilities of civilisational collapse?

3 thoughts on “Screw optimism – this is a global guerilla century”

  1. I think it’s a little of both. It’s entirely possible for all that to happen, but I suspect that if it does it will be largely limited to nations that were already on shaky ground. The major nations will most likely remain, basically, as they were. However, I have a feeling that if the U.S. doesn’t get back on its economic game it’s going to be drastically overshadowed by the EU. I don’t know if we’re up to it, though. It sees like the “end-of-the-world-the-judgment-is-coming” folks are doing the self-fulfilling prophecy thing right now.

  2. Nope, not going to happen in America, perhaps Europe.

    The Internet has brought substantial change and advantages in the past years. In the 1970, that inflation, that could have easily turned into Thunderdome. But today…we already have multiple online private money systems, LETs, local hours currency and the means to produce food and medicine. A mad max world? No chance. Too many innovative people already working towards private solutions. Let me rephrase that, too many nice, open source, helpful, respectful, libertarian, computer geeks working for a better tomorrow with private solutions.
    (great blog you have here)

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