Futurismic

Encouraging advances is solar power technology from the US DoE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory:

Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have set a world record in solar cell efficiency with a photovoltaic device that converts 40.8 percent of the light that hits it into electricity. This is the highest confirmed efficiency of any photovoltaic device to date.

But:

The 40.8 percent efficiency was measured under concentrated light of 326 suns. One sun is about the amount of light that typically hits Earth on a sunny day.

Mmm. I wonder what the efficiency will be under normal conditions (once it’s mass produced)? Still, it’s pretty impressive as a proof of concept:

…the new design uses compositions of gallium indium phosphide and gallium indium arsenide to split the solar spectrum into three equal parts that are absorbed by each of the cell’s three junctions for higher potential efficiencies.

Beautiful. Kudos to humanity’s glorious electrical engineers!

[story here via ElectricalEngineer.com and KurzweilAI.net][image from Alex // Berlin on flickr]

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Earlier today TJ wrote a post about the possibility of solar power as an alternative fuel. Now I have to admit to having a vested interest in this field as recently I began work as a Solar Analyst for a renewable energy developer. I’ve spent the last six weeks conducting studies into every aspect of the solar market and its feasibility. Although some more outlandish technologies have been overstated, the future of solar is incredibly bright.

There are four main types of solar power on the horizon. Most people know about silicon photovoltaics, which are now reaching record efficiencies of 23%.  A shortage of silicon in the last few years has stunted the market’s growth, with most installations coming in Germany, Spain and California where the government subsidies are attractive to companies. Silicon companies have invested billions in increasing production however and an increase in supply could lead to much more photovoltaics being available at a cheaper price. Market predictions for 2010 PV production vary between 5.6GW a year at the low end and more than 25GW at the most optimistic, with 12GW+ looking likely. A nuclear power plant typically provides 1GW of power, by comparison.

The shortage of silicon has been good for the other three types of solar power however. Thin-film photovoltaics have been a big hit in the news, with companies like Nanosolar and First Solar promising large scale production at a fraction of the cost of silicon PV, even if it is at lower efficiency. First Solar’s Cadmium Telluride thin-film converts 10.6% of light to electricity and they are aiming for 12% by 2010. NanoMarkets projects a $12Billion thin-film market by 2013, in addition to a $4Billion building-integrated market, most of which use thin-film.

Two types of solar power that aren’t receiving as much attention concentrate the light they receive to stronger concentrations using lenses or mirrors. The first type, concentrated solar thermal (or solar baseload as some are trying to rename it) has actually been producing power in the californian desert since the eighties, by heating water using concentrated sunlight and turning a turbine using the steam produced. Recent developments have replaced the water with molten salt, which can store the heat for up to 16 hours, allowing for production of electricity even when the sun isn’t shining. An incredible 6.4GW of installed solar thermal is predicted by 2012, 14 times what is currently installed. Half of this is in the Southwestern deserts of the US and most of the rest is in Spain. Solar thermal is already cost competitive in some places.

The final piece of the solar puzzle and perhaps the one with the most potential, is concentrating photovoltaics (CPV). By concentrating the sun’s power to between 2 and 1000 times stronger than normal, the amount of photovoltaic needed to generate the same amount of electricity goes down considerably. In addition, this allows you to use the more expensive, higher efficiency III-V photovoltaics currently used by satellites in space, which have efficiencies as high as 40.7%. CPV is the least commercialised of the four technologies, with a 3MW facility in Spain testing the effectiveness of 7 different companies’ products.

Having less reliance on photovoltaic material gives CPV long term cost advantage over both types of flat photovoltaics and the lack of water needs gives a similar advantage over solar thermal.
The future of solar is very bright and with government assistance in the coming few years to help companies build manufacturing capabilities, all four of these technologies could be as cheap if not cheaper than traditional power generation by the middle of the next decade. Solar Power is ready if we are.

[image of Solfocus test CPV array courtesy of SolFocus Inc]

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Dr Buzzo has some interesting back of the envelope calculations concerning localised solar power generation. This kind of localised, renewable energy generation, is something that Greenpeace are pretty hot on:

Day by day the sun supplies 15,000 times the amount of the daily energy-demand of the total global population. In less than 30 minutes the sun sends more energy to our planet than is consumed in a whole year.

This certainly looks promising. Dr Buzzo looks at it from the other direction, by taking available data on the amount of solar energy available, the efficiency of solar panels etc, and looking at how much energy could be generated in his native Connecticut:

Reasonably speaking I’d want a while lot more than that to power my computer, refrigerator, air conditioner and so on. And yes, I have an air conditioner. More likely I’d want to have an average of at least 8 kilowatt hours per day. Therefore I’d need at least 16 square meters of solar cells to assure I have a more reasonable amount of avaliable energy. That’s a four by four meter square. (just over 13 feet for those of us who think in terms of feet).

Interesting stuff - it remains to be seen if these sort of solar panels are economically feasible though…

[story from Depleted Cranium][additional material from Greenpeace International][image from Schwarzerkater on flickr]

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MIT scientists are touting a “major discovery” that will transfer solar power from a “limited, far-off solution” to “unlimited and soon.” (Via EurekAlert.)

Daniel Nocera, the Henry Dreyfus Professor of Energy at MIT and senior author of a paper describing the work that’s in the July 31 issue of Science, and Matthew Kanan, a postdoctoral fellow his lab, have created a new  catalyst that produces oxygen gas from water. When combined with another catalyst that produces hydrogen, their system can duplicate the water-splitting reaction that occurs during photosynthesis. Hydrogen and oxygen produced during the day while the sun is shining can be combined in a fuel cell at night when it’s not, solving the biggest problem with solar power–it doesn’t work when the sun doesn’t shine. Current methods of storing that energy are both too expensive and very inefficient.

Best of all, the new catalyst is made from abundant, non-toxic natural materials: it consists of cobalt metal, phosphate and an electrode, placed in water. When electricity runs through the electrode, the cobalt and phosphate form a thin film on it, and oxygen gas is produced. The catalyst works at room temperature and in neutral pH water, and is easy to set up.

Superlatives are being implemented to describe the discovery:

James Barber, a leader in the study of photosynthesis who was not involved in this research, called the discovery by Nocera and Kanan a “giant leap” toward generating clean, carbon-free energy on a massive scale.

“This is a major discovery with enormous implications for the future prosperity of humankind,” said Barber, the Ernst Chain Professor of Biochemistry at Imperial College London. “The importance of their discovery cannot be overstated since it opens up the door for developing new technologies for energy production thus reducing our dependence for fossil fuels and addressing the global climate change problem.”

Nocera hopes that within 10 years the system will be available to homeowners, allowing them to power their homes during the day with photovoltaic cells and use hydrogen and oxygen produced with the day’s excess energy to power their homes at night.

The net result?

Electricity-by-wire from a central source could be a thing of the past.

(Photo by Túrelio via Wikimedia Commons.)

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I’ve always loved the idea of the solar sail, giant glistening sails that use solar radiation to propel a ship through the solar system (as in the image at left).

But the Finnish Meterological Institute has come up with a better way to utilize that radiation for spacecraft propulsion, “by using long metallic tethers and a solar-powered electron gun to create an ‘electric sail.’” (Via Gizmag.)

Invented in 2006 at the Kumpula Space Centre, the electric solar wind sail, alas, loses some of the romance of the traditional solar sail: it looks more like an antenna (view an animation here):

A full-scale version would consist of up to 100 thin conducting wires as long as 20 km that are kept in a high positive potential by the spacecraft’s on-board solar-powered electron gun. This electric field effectively turns the wires into 50 meter wide sails that can then make use of solar wind. It’s estimated that a 20km long electric sail wire (which weighs only a few hundred grams and fits in a small reel) is equivalent to a one square kilometer solar wind sail when deployed in this way.

Planning for a test mission has begun, and the researchers note that the same technology could also assist in the development of solar power satellites.

In 2004 NASA’s Solar Sail Propulsion Team successfully deployed two 10-meter solar sails made of reflective material 40 to 100 times thinner than a piece of writing paper in a laboratory vacuum environment. But the first solar sail spacecraft, Cosmos 1, failed to enter orbit after its 2005 launch.  (UPDATE: Not, as commentator Anthony points out, due to any fault of the solar sails, but due to a rocket booster failure.)

(Image: John Ballentine.)

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An article about the Silicon Valley solar panel manufacturer Nansolar appears in the New York Times which highlights how their technology will change the economics of solar power:

While many photovoltaic start-up companies are concentrating on increasing the efficiency with which their systems convert sunlight, Nanosolar has focused on lowering the manufacturing cost. Its process is akin to a large printing press, rather than the usual semiconductor manufacturing techniques that deposit thin films on silicon wafers.

Nanosolar’s founder and chief executive, Martin Roscheisen, claims to be the first solar panel manufacturer to be able to profitably sell solar panels for less than $1 a watt. That is the price at which solar energy becomes less expensive than coal.

Link

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Microgeneration is the often mentioned as a great way to reduce energy use and dependence on fossil fuels. But looking at the prices of enough solar panels to provide 2-3kW of power is a little bit scary. A loan is possible - but the amount you’d pay back in interest would be frontloaded, whereas the savings in electricity would be paid back in a longer period, say 15-20 years. Wouldn’t it be good if you could offset the cost of the PV panels against future savings on your electricity?

The community of Berkeley is already beginning to offer such a scheme. They offer loans for Solar Electricity with repayments guaranteed to be less than the cost of electricity saved by the panels. Not only does this scheme make Berkeley more attractive to live in, it also encourages manufacturers, installers and testers of the technology to setup in the area. Hopefully this trend will continue in more governments and with more types of microgeneration.

[via Daily Kos, image by roddh]

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Building off of Tomas’ post on nanowires and the cool stuff they can do, we see a letter to Nature discussing the possibility of nanowires that can be powered by the sun, thereby requiring no external power source.  Supposedly, these nanowires would be more efficient than a crystal in creating electricity from solar energy. 

(via Ars Technica) (image from Inexpressible is possible)

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A few weeks ago, Tobias posted about the US military and eco-technology.  In it, he jokingly suggested an eco-DARPA.  As it turns out, the military seems headed in that direction, specifically with a space-based solar power station that would beam energy down to the surface.

The idea is that the Pentagon has decided that energy independence is now a national security issue, and as such falls under their purview.  In addition, this orbiting power station would negate the need for long fuel supply lines.  Units could have needed energy beamed down directly from orbit.  Another benefit of having the military act as the early adopter is that prices should begin to decrease almost immediately, making it more affordable for commercial enterprises to license the technology for civilian consumption.

As with all things governmental, we’ll have to wait and see.  This may just be pie-in-the-sky, it may be an enormous financial boondoggle for no-bid contracts, it may work spectacularly, or more probably something in between.  But keep your eyes peeled on this one over at its very own blog.

(via DailyTech)) (image from NSSO/Pentagon pdf)

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Whilst close to where I live the UK government is looking at proposals for the biggest tidal barrage in the world, elsewhere in Europe similarly ambitious projects are even closer to fruition. In Portugal the first ever commercial wavefarm is due to start any day now. A couple of huge wind turbines tapping into the vast wind energy of the North Sea have been a success and a farm of 200 of the 300ft high towers is now in planning, powering as much as a whole city. As I reported a few weeks ago, algae is looking more and more like the ultimate source for biofuels. Advances in nanotube growing and temperature controlled soldering are making big leaps in solar panel efficiency.

Even without the dual spectres of climate change and dwindling resources our future is likely to be wedded to many of these nascent technologies. When the Earth provides so much energy currently left untapped, it would be a shame not to use it. Economic centres in the future will be invariably tied to the amount of natural energy the environment nearby provides. It’s exciting to think that many of these technologies are reaching the point where they may soon be economically viable on large scale.

[photo from the guardian article on wave power]

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From FuturePundit, we get a rough outline of the solar situation in the US.  Basically, solar power is growing more popular, but the percentage of homes using solar power is still tiny.  According to this article at the Wall Street Journal, various problems await homeowners looking to install solar panels.  In addition to months-long waits, one of the biggest problems is that the panels are installed incorrectly, making them very inefficient.

Overall, though, solar usage is growing and expanding into markets beyond conventional home power.  Golf carts, pool heaters, and solar water heaters are all becoming more popular.  Other good news includes a move from solar thermal cells, where the sun heats up liquid that is used to make electricity, to photovoltaic cells which convert sunlight directly into electricity.

As a young, single guy who hasn’t lived in a place more than three years since high school, buying a house and making it energy efficient won’t happen anytime soon.  I plan on keeping a close eye on developments, however.

(image via Beige Alert)

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Sometimes commercial interests can actually be beneficial to the environment. Let’s say you own a sports stadium: how do you monetize that huge piece of real estate in the hours when there’s no events being held in it? Why not imitate AT&T Park, home of the San Francisco Giants, and [beware pop-ups]cover the building with solar panels that will create nice clean energy you can sell back to the grid. That way, everyone’s a winner. [Engadget]

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