Could Mexican narco-terrorism produce a massive open-source insurgency?

The news is full of the escalating war between Mexican drug traffickers and that country’s government, and it’s not a pretty picture – especially not for Mexico’s more northerly states and cities.

But what if the problems could spill over? Apparently they already have – there are claims that Canadian gang violence is connected to the Mexican situation, as is often the way with complex illicit supply chains.

John Robb hypothesises that it wouldn’t take much to spark an open-source insurgency in the region – one that could turn the northern states of Mexico and the southern states of the US into a no-go zone for the military forces of either country.

By itself, it’s doubtful that a narco/smuggling open source insurgency could accomplish this goal, although it would make a very good run at it (particularly given the declining budgets of their opponents).  However, the prospects for successful achievement of the plausible promise would radically improve  if the coming global depression drives

  • the creation of new violent groups — new primary loyalties formed from fear, revenge, and necessity — and
  • the economic deprivation necessary for a vibrant bazaar of violence — this is a marketplace that forms when, due to a need to purchase food and shelter, there is an endless pool of people willing to kill for a couple hundred bucks.

It’s not really that implausible an idea, and an illustration of the way that nation-state borders are being broken down by modern technology, economics and realpolitik.

When a nation can’t control an insurgency at this sort of scale, what will that do for its credibilty among its more stable neighbours?

2 thoughts on “Could Mexican narco-terrorism produce a massive open-source insurgency?”

  1. What, pray tell, does a military invasion have to do with “open source?” What “source?” Another term like “militia,” “freelance,” or “criminal” might be more appropriate, unless your objective is the show the software community that you are branching out in your posts!

  2. How Patriot Act Might Be Used To Prosecute Pot-Growers As Terrorists

    The USA Patriot Act’s mention of incidental criminal networks-opened the door for police under the Act’s anti-terrorism provisions to broadly use wiretaps and spy on U.S. Citizens.

    The Patriot Act equates illegal activity with supporting terrorism. The Act defines supporting “terrorist activity” as any criminal activity that “participates” in “World Markets” that terrorist may use or depend on for their support. For example someone distributing illegal-drugs could be charged with supporting a “Criminal Market” that terrorists use—based on the premise both criminals and terrorists use the same world networks and organizations to “Market” illegal-drugs; and have interests in criminal activity.” That criminal/terrorist-activity link by the Patriot Act is—logically flawed when you consider that a common car thief could be charged with supporting terrorism by selling a stolen car on a “criminal market” a terrorist used—among many non-terrorists. Such flawed logic could as easily be used by government to charge a “common criminal’s illegal activity” supported a lawful “Market” terrorists are dependent on for support. Brilliantly the “Patriot Act” spins full circle to include all commerce as being “One Market” to charge “common criminals” with supporting terrorists: brilliant because all legal and illegal “markets” are linked at some point by commerce.

    As the drug-war heats up on the U.S./Mexico Border expect this illogical premise of the Patriot Act might be pushed by U.S. Government as a Flagship to prosecute “ordinary American criminals” for supporting “markets” terrorists may depend on for support.

    While there are narrow illegal-markets where such prosecutions may be justified, Americans should be careful that U.S. Government does not expand this concept similar to (RICO) to be all inclusive of commerce. U.S. Government before tried to merge lawful and unlawful commerce to forfeit innocent owners’ property.

    You may read that “Government Concept” in United States v. 92 Buena Vista Ave. (91-781), 507 U.S. 111 (1993) at:
    U.S. Police using the Patriot Act’s low probable cause requirement can too easily wiretap and spy on innocent U.S. Citizens they believe might be involved in ordinary crime. Congress should let provisions of the Patriot Act due to Sunset in December 2009, EXPIRE.

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