Presenting the fact and fiction of tomorrow since 2001
OK ladies and gents, please give a warm welcome to our second new non-fiction columnist here at Futurismic - Sven Johnson.
Sven is what I might call a philosopher of design (although I image he’ll hate me having done so in public). In his inaugural column he gets all eschatological on our asses and asks whether, as a species, we collectively design our own doom. Continue reading “Designing for the Apocalypse”
I’ve mentioned this lecture series before, but the Long Now Foundation had two recent lecturers, Paul Saffo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, give us their takes on forecasting future trends.
Paul Saffo gives us his rules for forecasting, starting off with a great description of the “cone of uncertainty” that is involved in any sort of forecasting. He goes on to discuss how humans get the future so wrong - among them are the linear expectations we have, whereas change isn’t linear, but instead moves in more of an “S” curve.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb gave a very humorous talk on how change happens. He’s got a book out called “The Black Swan,” a book I’ve ordered and look forward to reading. The title comes from the old European idea that swans were only white, therefore things that were impossible were “as likely as a black swan,” this phrase being enshrined in Shakespearean dialogue, among others. Until people got to Australia. They’ve got black swans.
Taleb’s talk focused on the human bias in forecasting - how we use data solely taken from survivors and success stories. Everyone wants to hear how so-and-so made millions in the dot-com boom-and-you-can-too, but no one wants to hear how my Uncle Ernie lost a million bucks. Especially if you’re interested in his descriptions of the psychology involved, “Mediocristan” and “Extremistan” are fascinating topics.
Give the blogs a read, and there are certainly worse ways you can spend a couple hours than by listening to the podcasts on the way to work (Taleb and Saffo).
(image via flickr user kamoda)
Every year at The WELL, legendary author Bruce Sterling discusses his thoughts on the year just gone and the year to come. This year he talked with members of the WELL plus Jon Lebkowsky, who writes interesting articles himself for Worldchanging and Webblogsky. Among the highlights mentioned in the ‘State of The World, 2008′ talk are Pakistan, getting closer to a worldwide consensus, Sterling’s opinions of Europe (where he now lives) and the future of nation-states versus cities:
Bruce Sterling has always been a fascinating writer and futurist and this is a thought-provoking discussion on the future of our world. Another great writer, Kim Stanley Robinson, also had a great interview recently on BLDGBLOG which is worth checking out too. As one of the commentators says,
I think that’s an important point to make and one that I’m attempting to take on with my posts here at Futurismic. It’s essential to be aware of possible dangers to our world but we need to think about them constructively, not wallow in the prospect of something out of John Joseph Adams’ ‘Wastelands’ anthology. When I and others talk of the potential pitfalls of peak resources or climate change it’s not to glorify the threat but because the solutions are exciting.
Just what it says: here are 87 predictions about the future (and the original list at Wikipedia this list appears to be based on) that turned out, as the future became the present (and then, inexorably, the past) to be Just Plain Wrong. (Via John C. Wright.)
The section on computers gives you a taste:
UPDATE: Added link to Wikipedia list of failed predictions, which the 2spare.com list appears to be based on.
(U.S. Army Photo via Wikimedia Commons.)
Gordon Moore has predicted the expiry of the "Law" that bears his name to occur within the next ten to fifteen years. Moore’s Law is a rule of thumb that states that the number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on an integrated circuit doubles every two years (or thereabouts), and it has held up remarkably well since Moore coined it in the mid-sixties.
Indeed, this isn’t the first time Moore has sounded a death-knell for the Law, but as conventional electronics is inherently limited by the laws of physics, it’s plausible that it has to stop at some point. So what does this mean for the exponential theories of Singularitarians like Ray Kurzweil? Or will technologies like quantum computing pick up the ball before semiconductors drop it? [Via SlashDot][Image by oskay]
Paul Saffo, notable futurist and advisor to the World Economic Forum, believes there’s a fifty percent chance that the United States will have ceased to be a single nation within the next half a century - and that this would be a desirable outcome. I’m not an economist (nor do I play one on television), but I think I can see the points he’s making here. The question is - would the end result be something like the ancient Greek city-states, or some bizarre balkanized smorgasbord of corporations and micro-nations, as in Stephenson’s Snow Crash? [BeyondTheBeyond]
Many of the commonly tabled options for dealing with the incipient ecological crisis our planet is facing involve turning our backs on technology. One of the people taking the opposite position - namely that sustainability isn’t a zero-sum game - is Canadian science fiction author and foresight consultant Karl Schroeder, who talks about the potential of technologies like fusion power and vertical farming to avert catastrophe without destroying the potential of the human species in an interview at EcoGeek. [Vertical farm image borrowed from VerticalFarm.com]
And sometimes you just need to look at the bright side of things - for example, the rising cost of gasoline might reduce the incidence of obesity. It all ultimately boils down to personal lifestyle choices, though, at least as much as technology - so maybe we should think seriously about having less children.
Jason Stoddard’s “Changing The Tune” is a wistful story about youth and regrets, and how techno-utopia fails to live up to its hype.
“Dan, no!” Carolin said.
“You aren’t!” Keith said.
I waved them silent and looked down into the Northridge mall bandchise pit. Several hundred almighties had packed themselves in to see the premiere of Anna Baby No. 137. She was grinding through her rendition of “Always Pure.” Grey heads, bald heads, and newly brown and blonde and black heads were bobbing in time to the simple rhythm.
My handscreen showed all green. No sprites latched to my stream. No visigods watching. No Eyes or Ears tuned to our location.
I thumbed the icon and the music changed. Continue reading “CHANGING THE TUNE by Jason Stoddard”
