Category Archives: Blog

Too late for talk? Cascio’s case for environmental geoengineering

Jamais Cascio crops up at no less a venue that the Wall Street Journal talking about climate change and geoengineering, and he’s getting less equivocal as the months slip by. Within the space of a year or so, geoengineering – large-scale projects designed to ameliorate or control the symptoms of climate change – has progressed from being an unpalatable worst-case option to an unpalatable necessity. To put it another way: either we act now, or we lose the opportunity to act at all.

In short, although we know what to do to stop global warming, we’re running out of time to do it and show no interest in moving faster. So here’s where geoengineering steps in: It gives us time to act.

That’s if it’s done wisely. It’s imperative that we increase funding for geoengineering research, building the kinds of models and simulations necessary to allow us to weed out the approaches with dangerous, surprising consequences.

Fortunately, the deployment of geoengineering need not be all or nothing. Though it would have the greatest impact if done globally, some models have shown that intervention just in the polar regions would be enough to hold off the most critical tipping-point events, including ice-cap collapse and a massive methane release.

Polar-only geoengineering strikes me as a plausible compromise position. It could be scaled up if the situation becomes more dire and could be easily shut down with minimal temperature spikes if there were unacceptable side effects.

Still, we can’t forget: Geoengineering is not a solution for global warming. It would simply hold temperatures down temporarily, doing nothing about the causes of climate change, let alone ocean acidification and other symptoms of a carbon overdose. We can’t let ourselves slip back into business-as-usual complacency, because we’d simply be setting ourselves up for a far greater disaster down the road.

Our overall goal must remain the reduction and then elimination of greenhouse-gas emissions as swiftly as humanly possible. This will require feats of political will and courage around the world. What geoengineering offers us is the time to make it happen.

I’ve been following Cascio’s writing since he was a columnist here at Futurismic a few years ago, and I’ve a great deal of respect for his thinking. That said, advocating geoengineering as a necessity alarms me considerably – not because I think it’s unnecessary, but because of the potential for messy side-effects, be they environmental or political.

But as Cascio points out, despite finally reaching a point where politics has acknowledged that climate change is a major issue, nothing is happening other than blame-laying and jockeying for advantage, and the opportunity to act is slipping away. Whether geoengineering is an easier pill for nation-states to swallow than emissions control and rational energy policies remains to be seen.

[ It should be obvious, but just in case: yes, this post and Cascio’s essay are predicated on the notion that anthropic climate change is not only supported by the bulk of pertinent scientific research but a very probable threat to our existence on a species-wide scale. I am aware that there are those who disagree with those statements, and those people are welcome to their opinions. However, anyone popping up in the comments to this post with no better a contribution than to say climate change is a {hoax/sham/conspiracy/Liberal plot/Illuminati plot} will have their comment removed. If you can’t join the debate on the debate’s own terms, please go find one where you can. Your cooperation is appreciated. ]

The Iranian elections: is democracy viral?

Iranian election protestorsThe past weekend’s hot news story is still smouldering strongly today: the Iranian elections (and the resulting landslide victory for incumbent president Ahmadinejad) have resulted in accusations of vote fraud (which isn’t entirely surprising) and street riots and protests from supporters of the principle opposition candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi. Throw in some state censorship in the form of social networking websites and text messaging services being blocked, and you’ve got a story that’s not entirely unfamiliar in recent years. [image by Shahram Sharif]

Of course, I have no idea whether or not the election was rigged or not, though I have my suspicions. What interests me most about this story is how it paints a very different picture of Iran to the one we’ve been fed in the last decade or so. Far from being a monolithic Islamic state in thrall to Ahmadinejad, there’s evidently enough support for reform to threaten the incumbents; after all, a mere handful of angry reformists does not a riot (or an electoral recount) make.

How long this has been the case is beyond my knowledge, and I wish I had the time and opportunity to research it further. But the ubiquitous presence of peer-to-peer communications (and their inevitable censorship by the state) is telling, and I find myself wondering if perhaps the talk about democracy being a viral concept has some weight to it after all. Have services like Twitter and Facebook simply given a voice to those already opposed to the incumbent Iranian government? Or have they acted as a catalyst, enabling a population whose access to information and discussion was previously more closely controlled to see that there are alternatives within their grasp?

These aren’t questions with simple answers, of course, and there are many other factors at play in a world where everything is changing faster than ever before. But I think it’s fair to suggest that the internet is one of the strongest disruptive forces on the gameboard, especially in countries where state control of media has been far more crude and heavy-handed than here in the privileged West.

I fully expect we’ll be seeing a lot more stories like this from developing nations in years to come, as affordable communications technology pulls aside the heavy curtains of the state… it’s good news for oppressed citizens, certainly (at least in the short run), but for global stability? Maybe not so much.

Conficker: the new warfare

Remember the quasi-Millennial panic about the Conficker worm back in April? It turned out to be nowhere near as nasty and damaging a threat as it had been painted, but it was still unique in a number of ways – most notably in its own methodologies, and in the way the security and computer industries pulled together to defend against it. New Scientist tells the story:

… frenzied headlines were proclaiming the impending meltdown of the internet. But 1 April passed without event. This was not a total surprise. After all, it was just the first date on which the worm’s URL strategy could change – it was still up to its creators to flick the virtual switch. To the outside, it looked like a gigantic April Fool.

And indeed it may have been. In fact, the whole URL business was probably a red herring: using a centralised URL to release a worm upgrade – even one as painstakingly concealed as Conficker’s – is not a particularly sensible approach. It gives the authorities a specific target to counter-attack. From the second version onwards, Conficker had come with a much more efficient option: peer-to-peer (P2P) communication. This technology, widely used to trade pirated copies of software and films, allows software to reach out and exchange signals with copies of itself.

It’s an interesting story – one with a remarkably movie-like plot, albeit devoid of the vest-wearing tough guy heroes and big CGI explosions that you’d need to script in to sell it to Hollywood…

But what’s worth noting is that this is a new form of warfare, a bloodless and almost entirely computer-based iteration of fourth-generation insurgency that relies on subterfuge and networking to achieve its aims, and demonstrates complex strategic thinking on the part of its instigators. It’s good to see that the expertise exists to combat it, but you have to wonder what would happen if something similar was targetted specifically at a nation-state like the US, whose military brass have demonstrated a poor understanding of the web’s flat battlefield.

You can’t deploy tanks against this sort of threat; the game has changed.

Friday Free Fiction for 12th June

It’s Friday once again, which can only mean one thing – a big bunch of free science fiction stories to read on the intertubes!

Thanks to the wonders of Fusion-Modulated Temporal Blogging Technology (better known as “pre-scheduled posting”), I’ll actually be half-way up the country from my home by the time you read this, having compiled it beforehand… so if there’s anything I’ve missed, please accept my apologies, and my assurances that it’ll be rounded up for next week’s collection. That said, there’s plenty here to keep your eyeballs busy as it is…

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Here’s a whole shed-load from FeedBooks:

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Strange Horizons presents what is surely a candidate for Longest Titled Short Story Ever: “A Journal of Certain Events of Scientific Interest from the First Survey Voyage of the Southern Waters by HMS Ocelot, As Observed by Professor Thaddeus Boswell, DPhil, MSc; or, A Lullaby” by Helen Keeble, part the first and part the second

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Subterranean Online presents a new excursion into Jack Vance’s Dying Earth: “Sylgarmo’s Proclamation” by Lucius Shepard

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Here’s the latest instalment of Jason Stoddard‘s Eternal Franchise; we’re up to chapter 8.4

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Shadow Unit Season 2 continues with Episode 2.04: “Getaway

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News from the courageous Jay Lake:

My short story “People of Leaf and Branch” is live at Fantasy magazine.

There’s also a sample from Jay’s new novel Green at Tor.com.

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Speaking of Tor.com, their latest full-sized piece of original fiction is “The City Quiet as Death” by Steven Utley and Michael Bishop

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Here’s fragment 38 of Jayme Lynn Blaschke‘s Memory

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The ever-prolific Lee Gimenez writes to inform us that his story “September 12th” is up at Aphelion.

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Last but certainly not least, over at SF Signal they’re continuing their nefarious and underhand quest to make me look like the lazy mountebank I surely am by collating daily (daily!) free fiction roundups. So go and wreak revenge on my behalf by clicking through and hopefully overloading their servers or something. That’ll show ’em. 😉

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Oh, you want more? OK, so here’s a non-fiction bonus for you: in case you’ve not seen it already, the new edition of H+ Magazine is available to buy, read online in a fancy Flash interface or download as a free PDF. Can’t say they don’t give you options, them transhumanist types…

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And that’s your lot. Don’t forget to send smoke signals if you want to head us off at the pass with something you think we might otherwise miss in next week’s selection! But otherwise, have yourselves as good a weekend as you can.

Living in the past… literally

a tomb in New DelhiVia Geoff “BLDGBLOG” Manaugh we discover that people in India long ago found a solution to a shortage of affordable housing – they colonise ancient tombs and monuments, much to the chagrin of archaeologists and historians.

The city [New Delhi] is also home to tens of thousands of homeless people, and millions more who are desperately poor. Many of the otherwise homeless have made the reasonable assessment that the stout marble walls of the tombs and shrines and mausoleums that litter the city make a much nicer home, especially in monsoon season, than the sidewalk.

Some seek only temporary shelter. But others such as nine families living inside a federally protected monument called the Atgah Khan tomb, built in 1566, are so thoroughly ensconced that they can produce title deeds going back generations. They have plastered the walls, had the crypt wired to run the television and installed a fine kitchen, with wood cupboards built into the handy arched recesses.

It’s a tough call to make; history must be valued and protected, but people have to live somewhere. How can you tell a homeless family that they can’t live in an otherwise unoccupied building – you, with your job in archaeology and your apartment to go home to? You do it because it’s your job, of course, and because you believe that history must be preserved – but it can’t be much fun. [image by varunshiv]

And as the world becomes increasingly urbanised, perhaps we’ll see this sort of behaviour occuring in comparatively affluent Western cities as the less fortunate arrive in droves to seek employment and shelter. Imagine the Lincoln monument thronging with a small town of migrants from the former corn belt, or the huge family tombs of London’s great cemetaries repurposed into ersatz condominiums, always occupied by a few of the family’s oldest and youngest members to prevent claim-jumping newcomers…