Category Archives: Blog

Blog

Yanking on the Long Tail

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Ring-tailed lemurChris Anderson’s ‘Long Tail‘ theory of online economics gained traction with great rapidity, but gathered its fair share of detractors along the way. Hence when a group of economists examined some different data and found a different distribution, there was much snarking:

This really isn’t the upbeat fairy tale message Anderson has spent four years selling on the conference circuit. However, as he took his “message” to Davos and beyond, the Long Tail has gradually developed into a ‘Policy Based Evidence Making’.

Ouch. Anderson’s not giving up just yet, though:

Unfortunately, Page didn’t send me the data or reveal its source, so we may not be able to answer these questions. He’s a good economist, so I’m sure his analysis is excellent. But without knowing where the data came from, we really have no way of knowing whether he’s discovered anything about music demand broadly, or has just been reminded once again that some music markets, such as mobile, don’t work very well.

Anderson also points to a post at Hitwise which suggests that – in the business of search, at least – the Long Tail is alive and well.

So, is the future of business in “selling less of more”? Who knows – as with most predictions about the future, those of us who aren’t economists will just have to wait and see. [image by benoutram]

Blog

A few kind words about Michael Crichton

Because even I have a heart, let the record show that Discover lists The Top 5 “Crazy” Michael Crichton Ideas That Actually Came True.

  1. Talking gorillas (Congo)
  2. Self-replicating robots (Prey)
  3. Superbugs from space (The Andromeda Strain). OK, this sounds like a stretch, but: “…[W]e’ve also discovered that some [microorganism] strains become more virulent when sent into space. (Though fear not: They become far less deadly once they’ve made the journey home.)”
  4. Brain implants (The Terminal Man)
  5. Cloning dead (or even extinct) animals (that novel about dinos, the name of which escapes me):  Maybe overstating a bit, but: “[S]cientists have successfully cloned mice that have been dead and frozen for 16 years.”

Not all these ideas are exactly original to Crichton.  Still, take that, me.

[Tribute to the author by DML East Branch]

Blog

The Fourth Republic and the future of America

A fascinating article at Salon.com on whether the election of Barack Obama represents the beginning of a new segment of American history, within the context of the Three Republics model:

George W. Bush was not only the final president of the Jeffersonian backlash period of Roosevelt’s Third Republic, but the last president of the 1932-2004 Third Republic itself. The final president of a republic tends to be a failed, despised figure.

The First Republic, which began with George Washington, ended with James Buchanan, a hapless president who refused to act as the South seceded after Lincoln’s election.

The Second Republic, which began with Abraham Lincoln, ended with the well-meaning but reviled and ineffectual Herbert Hoover.

The Third Republic, founded by Franklin Roosevelt, came to a miserable end under the pathetic George W. Bush.

Unlike most of the hyperbolic editorials I’ve read on Obama’s victory this one gives a technological and economic historical context:

…what causes these cycles of reform and backlash in American politics? I believe they are linked indirectly to stages of technological and economic development.

Lincoln’s Second American Republic marked a transition from an agrarian economy to one based on the technologies of the first industrial revolution — coal-fired steam engines and railroads.

Roosevelt’s Third American Republic was built with the tools of the second industrial revolution — electricity and internal combustion engines. It remains to be seen what energy sources — nuclear? Solar? Clean coal? — and what technologies — nanotechnology? Photonics? Biotech– will be the basis of the next American economy.

This presents an interesting historical framework to the United States. As to whether it’s true, only time will tell.

[via Boing Boing][image from zaphodsotherhead on flickr]

Blog

This is your brain on smart drugs…

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Medical ethicists are starting to get worried about the possibility of employers requiring their workers take smart drugs to boost productivity. Hence this report entitled “When the boss turns pusher” in the Journal of Medical Ethics:

…the possibility of discrimination by employers and insurers against individuals who choose not to engage in such enhancement is a serious threat worthy of legislative intervention. While lawmakers should not prevent individuals from freely pursuing neurocognitive enhancement, they should act to ensure that such enhancement is not coerced.

It’s an interesting question. Another point concerns the anti-egalitarian nature of smart drugs. If their use confers a genuine advantage, but they remain expensive, it will be yet another exclusive tool of advancement for the rich. The JME suggests:

…objectors argue that neurocognitive enhancement is anti-egalitarian because these technologies are expected to be costly and the wealthy will have significantly more access to them.

This is indeed likely to be the case—unless society chooses to subsidise enhancement, as it does public education and (outside the USA) healthcare.

However, similar inequalities are generated by private grammar schools and tutors for the SAT (a college and university admission test) and Ivy League universities, yet few suggest outlawing these threats to distributive justice.

So the issue of equality is another political ballgame (I’d love to be able to get some memory enhancers on the NHS). Anyway the approach suggested vis a vis smart drugs by the JME seems very positive and enlightened.

[When the boss turns pusher via article on Macleans.ca, via Sentient Developments][image fron jenlight on flickr]

Blog

Friday Free Fiction for 7th November

It’s Friday evening here in the UK, which can only mean one thing – namely, that I’ve been sat at the keyboard bashing together your weekly selection of free science fiction to read on the intartoobs. Here we go, fiction-fans…

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There’s a lone novel at Manybooks.net:

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There’s some old-school classics at Feedbooks:

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There’s a new edition of Clarkesworld Magazine, containing (among other good non-fictional stuff):

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Here’s the usual monthly foursome from Apex Online:

Plus some special Election Horror:

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This week’s fictional output at Strange Horizons is the first part of “Return” by Eric Vogt.

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Meanwhile, over at Subterranean Online there’s…

… a brand new story by recent Campbell award-winner, Mary Robinette Kowal. We hope you enjoy “Waiting for Rain” but should also point out that Mary’s posted a different, shorter version of the tale at her website. Read them both — we had trouble deciding which version to buy!

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From Chris Roberson:

The good people at Pyr have published an original short story of mine, “Ill Met in Elvera,” as part of their “Sample Chapter” program.

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Via SF Signal:

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Here’s last week’s late Friday Flash:

And this week we have:

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And there we have it, folks; should keep you busy for a while. Don’t forget to keep sending in your plugs and tip-offs and blatant self-pimpage; deadline 1800GMT every Friday. Have a great weekend!