Tag Archives: science

Does a massive miscalculation mean the LHC really could destroy the world?

The LHC will eat your home planet. Maybe.Remember all that beef about the possibility of the LHC producing uncontrollable black holes that could DESTROY TEH WORLD OMG? Well, it’s still highly unlikely, but it turns out that the way these things are calculated aren’t as reassuring as we might perhaps want them to be:

The problem is compounded when the chances of a planet-destroying event are deemed to be tiny. In that case, these chances are dwarfed by the chances of an error in the argument. “If the probability estimate given by an argument is dwarfed by the chance that the argument itself is flawed, then the estimate is suspect,” say Ord and co.

Nobody at CERN has put a figure on the chances of the LHC destroying the planet. One study simply said: “there is no risk of any significance whatsoever from such black holes”.

Which means we are left with the possibility that their argument is wrong which Ord reckons conservatively to be about 10^-4, meaning that out of a sample of 10,000 independent arguments of similar apparent merit, one would have a serious error.

In layman’s terms, the above doesn’t mean that the LHC is dangerous, it just means that the assurances of its safety are predicated on flaky calculations. The difference between the two is left as an exercise for the reader. 😉 [via SlashDot; image by muriel_vd]

The slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact

ducksIt’s always irritated me when the media runs a story about how standards in science education are falling and illustrate this by asking members of the Great British public a bunch of science-based trivia questions.

My beef with this habit is that science isn’t just about facts. It’s about the scientific method. It’s about a way of looking at and thinking about the world. It’s about empiricism, logic, rationality, trial and error, and being aware of your own limitations and biases.

Facts are fine, but it’s a mistake for anyone to identify science purely with fact-based knowledge.

This particular bugbear of mine has found some support with this study, which concludes (among other things) the importance of developing scientific reasoning skills alongside scientific knowledge:

Researchers tested nearly 6,000 students majoring in science and engineering at seven universities — four in the United States and three in China. Chinese students greatly outperformed American students on factual knowledge of physics — averaging 90 percent on one test, versus the American students’ 50 percent, for example.

But in a test of science reasoning, both groups averaged around 75 percent — not a very high score, especially for students hoping to major in science or engineering.

FWIW I think inquiry-based learning should become it’s own subject in the same way physics, chemistry, and maths already are.

And since so many of the problems the world faces are interpreted through the prism of scientific thought it would be a Good Thing if the true nature of science were more generally understood.

/rant

[from Physorg][image from Gaetan Lee on flickr] [Also what does this have to do with SF? Who can say! Peace.][30/01/2009: Small edit – adding BBC News link to science video quiz]

DVD gift ideas for science-minded kids

My son, age eight, has always been interested in animals, extinct or otherwise. But he’s played to death the three-DVD documentary series The Future Is Wild, which depicts the evolution of life on Earth millions of years into the future. The CGI animation is pretty good; the extrapolated life forms in the post-human world are mind-bending.

My son doesn’t seem frightened or depressed by the depiction of a universe without human intelligence or galactic empires, which is more than I can say for his dad. You don’t have to be a kid to get into this. And if you’re even considering writing an sf story about nonhuman aliens, please see it.

There’s an animated TV adventure series on Discovery Kids, but my son and I agree that it’s not as good as the original.

Just as good, and getting almost as much screen time in my house, is Alien Planet, exploring via space probe the planet Darwin IV, where evolution produced creatures like nothing on Earth.

I hope they go over as well in your home as they have in mine.

[Bladderhorn from Alien Planet]

Matter is actually just fluctuations in the quantum vacuum

Another classic case of the headline saying it all: physicists have confirmed that matter is no more than fluctuations in the quantum vacuum. Everything is arguably illusory, including ourselves. All of a sudden I have a vision of Terence McKenna muttering Beatles lyrics to the hyperspace elves in between fits of gently manic laughter…

And while we’re in brain-bending existential scientific headf*ck territory, why don’t we all get behind conceptual artist Jonathon Keats and his plan to turn the contents of a nuclear waste dump into a massive machine for generating new universes?

A few kind words about Michael Crichton

Because even I have a heart, let the record show that Discover lists The Top 5 “Crazy” Michael Crichton Ideas That Actually Came True.

  1. Talking gorillas (Congo)
  2. Self-replicating robots (Prey)
  3. Superbugs from space (The Andromeda Strain). OK, this sounds like a stretch, but: “…[W]e’ve also discovered that some [microorganism] strains become more virulent when sent into space. (Though fear not: They become far less deadly once they’ve made the journey home.)”
  4. Brain implants (The Terminal Man)
  5. Cloning dead (or even extinct) animals (that novel about dinos, the name of which escapes me):  Maybe overstating a bit, but: “[S]cientists have successfully cloned mice that have been dead and frozen for 16 years.”

Not all these ideas are exactly original to Crichton.  Still, take that, me.

[Tribute to the author by DML East Branch]